tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 480 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 480 Southwest BNA 08:02 MEM 09:08 5% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 3758 Southwest BNA 20:53 MEM 21:56 18% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 14m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700 5h 42m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 5h 22m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557 3h 19m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 6h 58m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:38 → MEM 14:15AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 7h 11m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MEM 17:02DL 1681 6h 08m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:05 → DCA 18:14AA 4374 · flown by Republic 2h 24m Washington DCA 20:38 → MEM 22:14AA 4681 · flown by Republic 7h 09m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON