Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3545 BNA 08:17 → MSP 10:33 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2612 BNA 18:45 → MSP 20:58 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3545 Southwest	BNA 08:17	MSP 10:33	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2221 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:00	MSP 08:10	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:03	MSP 12:14	5%	2%	0.5%	88%
WN 1475 Southwest	BNA 20:43	MSP 22:52	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:00	MSP 18:14	9%	3%	0.5%	71%
DL 2612 Delta Flight history →	BNA 18:45	MSP 20:58	10%	3%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON