Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 853 at 12:46, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 853 Southwest	BNA 12:46	OMA 14:36	6%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125	6h 27m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682	3h 14m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	2h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest	5h 57m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	6h 54m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	49m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → OMA 09:28DL 2632	4h 18m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	3h 29m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → OMA 13:22DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON