Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:22, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1060 Southwest	BNA 17:04	ONT 19:16	13%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 17:05 → SLC 19:40DL 2205	3h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	8h 43m	100%	91%
American Details →	BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635	8h 44m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 28m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:09 → ONT 12:12DL 1173	6h 37m	94%	88%
Southwest Details →	BNA 08:24 → DEN 10:04WN 496	3h 01m Denver	DEN 13:05 → ONT 14:30WN 1596	8h 06m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	BNA 12:11 → MDW 13:39WN 573	3h 40m Chicago	MDW 17:19 → ONT 19:31WN 2784	9h 20m	100%	86%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:39 → ONT 11:55AA 2956	7h 54m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:22 → PHX 08:06WN 635	49m Phoenix	PHX 08:55 → ONT 10:08WN 3236	5h 46m	92%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON