tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2011 Southwest BNA 11:23 ORF 14:18 9% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1004 Southwest BNA 14:48 ORF 17:34 11% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925 6h 35m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:43 → JFK 12:19AA 4712 · flown by Republic 3h 11m New York JFK 15:30 → ORF 17:09AA 4359 · flown by Republic 7h 26m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 21m Detroit DTW 10:07 → ORF 12:02DL 3066 4h 57m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101 5h 02m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 2h 33m Chicago ORD 12:14 → ORF 15:38UA 2807 6h 58m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 15:27 → ORF 17:12DL 2329 5h 18m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 22:46 → ORF 00:34 +1DL 2338 7h 03m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:20 → JFK 17:42DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor 3h 50m New York JFK 21:32 → ORF 22:57DL 5326 · flown by Endeavor 7h 37m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:30 → MIA 19:53AA 487 1h 21m Miami MIA 21:14 → ORF 23:37AA 775 6h 07m 74% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON