Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 1477 Alaska	BNA 17:22	PDX 20:06	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 40m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 32m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 48m	99%	92%
United Details →	BNA 08:32 → DEN 10:28UA 1716	2h 59m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	8h 41m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:05 → SLC 19:40DL 2205	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	8h 39m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 02m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 35m	96%	89%
United Details →	BNA 11:11 → IAH 13:19UA 241	3h 28m Houston	IAH 16:47 → PDX 19:18UA 1964	10h 07m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON