Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2809 BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 857 BNA 18:45 → PHL 21:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2809 American Flight history →	BNA 06:28	PHL 09:39	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 2605 American Flight history →	BNA 10:20	PHL 13:31	8%	2%	0.6%	75%
WN 706 Southwest	BNA 10:20	PHL 13:16	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 3249 American	BNA 13:36	PHL 16:50	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 868 American Flight history →	BNA 16:09	PHL 19:26	11%	3%	0.7%	62%
WN 857 Southwest	BNA 18:45	PHL 21:49	16%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON