Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 635 BNA 06:22 → PHX 08:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 642 BNA 16:42 → PHX 18:29 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 635 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:22	PHX 08:06	5%	1%	0.4%	88%
WN 1170 Southwest	BNA 08:17	PHX 10:01	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1869 Southwest	BNA 11:41	PHX 13:14	9%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 3086 American Flight history →	BNA 14:25	PHX 16:19	10%	2%	0.6%	81%
WN 639 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:20	PHX 15:55	11%	2%	0.4%	59%
WN 643 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:41	PHX 22:20	12%	2%	0.5%	46%
WN 642 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:42	PHX 18:29	13%	2%	0.5%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON