Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1403 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1403 BNA 08:02 → PNS 09:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 442 BNA 16:50 → PNS 18:15 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1403 Southwest	BNA 08:02	PNS 09:33	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2352 Southwest	BNA 08:18	PNS 09:44	10%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 687 Southwest	BNA 14:03	PNS 15:28	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 45 Southwest	BNA 12:49	PNS 14:14	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1177 Southwest	BNA 17:00	PNS 18:26	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 442 Southwest	BNA 16:50	PNS 18:15	24%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON