Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3239 at 10:49, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3239 Southwest	BNA 10:49	PWM 14:24	7%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821	4h 55m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	4h 50m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	6h 50m	99%	88%
American Details →	BNA 05:15 → ORD 07:07AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 08:23 → PWM 11:46AA 4741 · flown by Republic	5h 31m	95%	86%
Southwest Details →	BNA 14:06 → BWI 16:58WN 462	2h 56m Baltimore	BWI 19:54 → PWM 21:30WN 1053	6h 24m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → PWM 23:14DL 2138	7h 23m	98%	86%
United Details →	BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → PWM 14:31UA 2804	5h 51m	97%	84%
American Details →	BNA 15:05 → DCA 18:14AA 4374 · flown by Republic	3h 41m Washington	DCA 21:55 → PWM 23:39AA 2978	7h 34m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BNA 18:27 → JFK 22:09DL 4909 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor	5h 25m	62%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON