Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4649 at 11:51 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 4649 BNA 11:51 → RDU 14:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 655 BNA 18:46 → RDU 21:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4649 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 11:51	RDU 14:45	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 1211 Southwest	BNA 10:34	RDU 13:09	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
YX 4368 Republic	BNA 16:51	RDU 19:31	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1006 Southwest	BNA 16:07	RDU 18:40	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 655 Southwest	BNA 18:46	RDU 21:20	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 09:35	RDU 12:20	18%	9%	1.6%	82%
DL 5153 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 19:59	RDU 22:46	28%	15%	1.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON