Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2668 BNA 09:57 → SAN 12:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 209 BNA 18:27 → SAN 20:53 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2668 Southwest	BNA 09:57	SAN 12:21	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 660 Southwest	BNA 13:16	SAN 15:34	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 209 Southwest	BNA 18:27	SAN 20:53	19%	2%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BNA 06:22 → PHX 08:06WN 635	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 09:26 → SAN 10:43WN 456	6h 21m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355	1h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 18:20 → SAN 19:17DL 4087 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	96%	85%
Southwest Details →	BNA 16:42 → PHX 18:29WN 642	1h 13m Phoenix	PHX 19:42 → SAN 20:58WN 4373	6h 16m	89%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON