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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3960 at 10:11 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3960 Southwest BNA 10:11 SDF 12:08 6% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 4997 Southwest BNA 18:40 SDF 20:35 17% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 14:06 → BWI 16:58WN 462 2h 55m Baltimore BWI 19:53 → SDF 21:31WN 439 6h 25m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374 4h 19m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 4h 33m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557 2h 59m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 6h 09m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 4h 54m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 5h 47m 96% 90%
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:05 → DCA 18:14AA 4374 · flown by Republic 1h 31m Washington DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40AA 4672 · flown by Republic 5h 35m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 1h 18m Minneapolis MSP 13:32 → SDF 16:25DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 98% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON