Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 372 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 372 BNA 07:00 → SEA 09:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4737 BNA 17:36 → SEA 20:33 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 372 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:00	SEA 09:59	5%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1642 Delta	BNA 07:04	SEA 09:41	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 623 Alaska Flight history →	BNA 09:25	SEA 12:26	15%	2%	0.6%	85%
AS 281 Alaska Flight history →	BNA 07:02	SEA 10:04	19%	2%	0.6%	81%
WN 4737 Southwest	BNA 17:36	SEA 20:33	23%	4%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BNA 08:32 → DEN 10:28UA 1716	1h 07m Denver	DEN 11:35 → SEA 13:17UA 2058	6h 45m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:05 → SLC 19:40DL 2205	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:44 → SEA 22:00DL 2016	6h 55m	95%	77%
Southwest Details →	BNA 08:24 → DEN 10:04WN 496	1h 19m Denver	DEN 11:23 → SEA 13:03WN 888	6h 39m	100%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON