Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 626 BNA 07:48 → SFO 10:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 2300 BNA 14:02 → SFO 16:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 626 United Flight history →	BNA 07:48	SFO 10:27	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 581 United	BNA 14:57	SFO 18:03	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2300 Southwest	BNA 14:02	SFO 16:48	11%	4%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355	1h 01m Los Angeles	LAX 18:11 → SFO 19:35DL 2197	6h 36m	93%	78%
American Details →	BNA 10:00 → DFW 12:02AA 1103	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → SFO 14:52AA 2325	6h 52m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:05 → SLC 19:40DL 2205	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:59 → SFO 21:59DL 2762	6h 54m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON