Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 08:32, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 2557 Southwest	BNA 18:44	SJC 21:08	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 20m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:22 → PHX 08:06WN 635	1h 11m Phoenix	PHX 09:17 → SJC 11:13WN 3581	6h 51m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 00m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355	3h 37m Los Angeles	LAX 20:47 → SJC 22:10DL 1420	9h 11m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383	8h 01m	98%	89%
American Details →	BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583	2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834	8h 53m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	9h 58m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	BNA 08:24 → DEN 10:04WN 496	3h 47m Denver	DEN 13:51 → SJC 15:25WN 459	9h 01m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON