tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 676 Southwest BNA 16:05 SMF 18:44 12% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 17:05 → SLC 19:40DL 2205 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 8h 39m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 14m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 09m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 41m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 7h 50m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355 1h 34m Los Angeles LAX 18:44 → SMF 20:21DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 10h 02m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:32 → DEN 10:28UA 1716 3h 07m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 8h 38m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:05 → SMF 13:41AA 2078 8h 37m 100% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 53m Chicago ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:37UA 1828 7h 38m 71% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON