tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1155 Southwest BNA 08:02 TUL 09:49 2% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 4017 Southwest BNA 20:54 TUL 22:34 8% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BNA 11:11 → IAH 13:19UA 241 3h 11m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 6h 57m 99% 99%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 46m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:32 → DEN 10:28UA 1716 3h 12m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 7h 57m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:26 → CLT 11:10AA 966 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 12:44 → TUL 14:13AA 2657 5h 47m 97% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 15:45 → MDW 17:15WN 575 3h 19m Chicago MDW 20:34 → TUL 22:23WN 1434 6h 38m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:13 → ORD 07:09AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Chicago ORD 08:23 → TUL 10:04AA 4155 · flown by Envoy 4h 51m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 17:19 → DEN 19:07UA 2201 1h 48m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 6h 28m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 7h 10m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON