tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 693 Southwest BNA 10:13 TYS 12:08 10% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 1515 Southwest BNA 17:13 TYS 19:07 16% 3% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 5h 00m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 4h 00m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 5h 22m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 22:49 → TYS 23:50DL 3072 6h 19m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:35 → TYS 13:48AA 2544 6h 47m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → BNA 12:57 → DFW 15:03AA 1396 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:32 → TYS 20:47AA 5346 · flown by PSA 6h 50m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 14:06 → BWI 16:58WN 462 1h 18m Baltimore BWI 18:16 → TYS 19:49WN 606 4h 43m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:26 → CLT 11:10AA 966 3h 14m Charlotte CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 6h 16m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON