Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 762 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day WN 762 BNA 08:10 → VPS 09:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 686 BNA 15:53 → VPS 17:18 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 762 Southwest	BNA 08:10	VPS 09:32	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1319 Southwest	BNA 08:33	VPS 09:58	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 859 Southwest	BNA 19:38	VPS 21:04	22%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1329 Southwest	BNA 19:39	VPS 21:02	22%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 686 Southwest	BNA 15:53	VPS 17:18	23%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON