Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 874 Delta Flight history →	BOI 14:03	ATL 20:19	11%	3%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808	2h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 11:12 → ATL 14:46DL 9960	7h 16m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 39m	99%	91%
United Details →	BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5924 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Denver	DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:21UA 2806	8h 21m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920	3h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	8h 32m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOI 13:10 → SLC 14:41DL 2095	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	8h 48m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOI 11:07 → SLC 12:22DL 1744	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	8h 18m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOI 19:25 → SEA 19:32DL 4127 · flown by SkyWest	3h 47m Seattle	SEA 23:19 → ATL 06:57 +1DL 567	9h 32m	99%	85%
American Details →	BOI 06:21 → DFW 10:34AA 1107	1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:11 → ATL 15:36AA 1008	7h 15m	97%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOI 08:42 → SEA 09:30DL 3740 · flown by SkyWest	51m Seattle	SEA 10:21 → ATL 17:59DL 562	7h 17m	69%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON