Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 3415 at 09:50, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 3415 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 09:50	BUR 10:45	9%	3%	0.5%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	BOI 11:07 → SLC 12:22DL 1744	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	99%	93%
United Details →	BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782	2h 46m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	7h 18m	99%	90%
United Details →	BOI 14:00 → SFO 14:58UA 4661 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m San Francisco	SFO 18:51 → BUR 20:22UA 2001	7h 22m	100%	89%
Alaska Details →	BOI 09:01 → PDX 09:23AS 3495 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m Portland	PDX 11:06 → BUR 13:23AS 1552	5h 22m	97%	85%
Alaska Details →	BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon	1h 08m Portland	PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386	4h 44m	95%	84%
Alaska Details →	BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229	1h 12m Portland	PDX 17:57 → BUR 20:18AS 559	4h 55m	93%	82%
United Details →	BOI 14:40 → DEN 16:39UA 2173	2h 49m Denver	DEN 19:28 → BUR 20:58UA 2411	7h 18m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON