Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5924 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 5924 BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2395 BOI 17:46 → DEN 19:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5924 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 05:00	DEN 07:05	3%	2%	0.4%	91%
DL 2543 Delta	BOI 08:23	DEN 10:45	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1782 United Flight history →	BOI 06:30	DEN 08:29	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 4747 Southwest	BOI 08:41	DEN 10:32	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 755 Southwest	BOI 08:10	DEN 10:12	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 1690 Southwest	BOI 12:28	DEN 14:23	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1139 United	BOI 10:22	DEN 12:29	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 756 Southwest	BOI 12:55	DEN 14:57	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 173 Southwest	BOI 14:33	DEN 16:25	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1341 Southwest	BOI 15:20	DEN 17:22	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2173 United Flight history →	BOI 14:40	DEN 16:39	15%	3%	0.5%	76%
UA 2395 United Flight history →	BOI 17:46	DEN 19:45	19%	5%	0.5%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON