Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:21 pm at Boise); 6 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 2137 at 20:46, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 2137 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	BOI 20:46	GEG 21:10	24%	7%	0.9%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Spokane is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:52 → GEG 23:38DL 1466	5h 56m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	BOI 20:14 → SEA 20:52AS 2352 · flown by Horizon	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 22:52 → GEG 23:59AS 1382	4h 45m	93%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON