Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3400 BOI 07:31 → GEG 07:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2480 BOI 15:13 → GEG 15:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3400 SkyWest	BOI 07:31	GEG 07:48	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 3405 SkyWest	BOI 07:32	GEG 07:58	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 3208 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 13:04	GEG 13:30	12%	3%	0.5%	89%
AS 2137 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	BOI 20:32	GEG 20:56	13%	6%	0.9%	85%
QX 2408 Horizon	BOI 15:57	GEG 16:21	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
QX 2480 Horizon	BOI 15:13	GEG 15:25	14%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON