Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3725 BOI 07:00 → LAX 08:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3701 BOI 16:00 → LAX 17:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3725 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 07:00	LAX 08:20	3%	1%	0.5%	96%
OO 3126 SkyWest	BOI 07:10	LAX 08:27	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 3701 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 16:00	LAX 17:23	7%	3%	0.5%	88%
AS 2180 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 18:51	LAX 20:10	0%	0%	0.0%	100%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON