Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3116 Southwest	BOI 12:01	OAK 12:38	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3092 Southwest	BOI 13:25	OAK 14:21	8%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 46m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	BOI 13:02 → SLC 14:25DL 2095	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:58 → OAK 17:44DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	98%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON