Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1021 BOI 07:03 → PHX 08:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4080 BOI 13:50 → PHX 15:07 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1021 Southwest	BOI 07:03	PHX 08:16	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3675 Envoy	BOI 06:33	PHX 07:54	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 6439 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 09:06	PHX 10:33	7%	3%	0.5%	100%
WN 1061 Southwest	BOI 15:37	PHX 16:44	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 4080 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOI 13:50	PHX 15:07	13%	3%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON