Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 552 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 552 BOI 06:23 → SAN 07:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3481 BOI 18:50 → SAN 20:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 552 Southwest	BOI 06:23	SAN 07:48	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1956 Southwest	BOI 15:49	SAN 16:59	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 3481 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 18:50	SAN 20:00	16%	5%	0.6%	78%
AS 2342 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:00	SAN 21:22	56%	12%	0.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON