Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 118 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day OO 118 BOI 06:36 → SEA 07:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 345 BOI 07:54 → SEA 08:28 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 118 SkyWest	BOI 06:36	SEA 07:35	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3916 SkyWest	BOI 15:39	SEA 16:32	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 739 Alaska	BOI 06:22	SEA 06:51	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3750 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 10:35	SEA 11:26	18%	6%	0.5%	92%worse than usual
OO 183 SkyWest	BOI 12:44	SEA 13:28	18%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 4127 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 19:25	SEA 19:33	20%	5%	0.5%	83%
AS 595 Alaska	BOI 14:37	SEA 15:02	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3740 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:42	SEA 09:30	23%	6%	0.6%	85%
AS 565 Alaska	BOI 16:20	SEA 16:43	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 345 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 07:54	SEA 08:28	27%	5%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 2070 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 08:15	SEA 08:50	12%	4%	0.0%	88%
AS 2235 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 13:06	SEA 13:40	13%	0%	0.0%	87%
AS 2159 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 11:42	SEA 12:16	19%	0%	0.0%	81%
AS 2352 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:47	SEA 21:21	40%	15%	2.0%	60%
AS 2166 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 10:00	SEA 10:34	56%	0%	0.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON