Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3025 BOI 08:57 → SFO 09:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest UA 743 BOI 18:35 → SFO 19:23 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3025 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:57	SFO 09:57	10%	4%	0.6%	60%
UA 4661 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 14:00	SFO 14:58	11%	5%	0.5%	48%
UA 4639 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:28	SFO 09:39	11%	4%	0.6%	48%
UA 743 United	BOI 18:35	SFO 19:23	12%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON