Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 400 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Safest bet that day WN 400 BOI 07:38 → SMF 08:18 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2846 BOI 16:40 → SMF 17:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 400 Southwest	BOI 07:38	SMF 08:18	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2846 Southwest	BOI 16:40	SMF 17:02	19%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 2156 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 07:04	SMF 07:34	6%	3%	1.3%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON