tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 1703 at 11:15, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1703 Alaska BOI 11:15 SNA 11:54 16% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 7h 21m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → SNA 11:50DL 1835 6h 50m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → BOI 08:08 → SFO 09:04UA 4639 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m San Francisco SFO 12:19 → SNA 14:22UA 2441 7h 14m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → BOI 09:06 → PHX 10:33AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 3h 44m Phoenix PHX 14:17 → SNA 15:41AA 2463 7h 35m 100% 86%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229 2h 59m Portland PDX 19:44 → SNA 21:54AS 413 6h 31m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BOI 13:50 → PHX 15:07AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 2h 56m Phoenix PHX 18:03 → SNA 19:32AA 2471 6h 42m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOI 11:07 → SLC 12:22DL 1744 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 15:15 → SNA 16:09DL 1277 6h 02m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 10:52 → SFO 11:49AS 3025 · flown by SkyWest 3h 59m San Francisco SFO 15:48 → SNA 17:26AS 3494 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 100% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON