Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 13 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9K 811 BOS 14:05 → ACK 15:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9K 235 BOS 11:59 → ACK 13:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9K 811 Cape Air	BOS 14:05	ACK 15:21	8%	3%	1.3%	no record
9K 1638 Cape Air	BOS 14:12	ACK 15:26	8%	3%	1.3%	no record
9K 406 Cape Air	BOS 08:18	ACK 09:35	9%	2%	1.3%	no record
9K 55 Cape Air	BOS 18:18	ACK 19:29	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 54 Cape Air	BOS 09:50	ACK 11:04	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 513 Cape Air	BOS 17:18	ACK 18:32	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 919 Cape Air	BOS 10:05	ACK 11:22	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 22 Cape Air	BOS 16:46	ACK 18:00	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 87 Cape Air	BOS 15:32	ACK 16:45	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
9K 8380 Cape Air	BOS 12:40	ACK 13:57	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
9K 92 Cape Air	BOS 11:42	ACK 12:48	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
9K 480 Cape Air	BOS 11:55	ACK 13:13	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
9K 235 Cape Air	BOS 11:59	ACK 13:03	11%	3%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON