Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2242 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2242 BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1897 BOS 21:19 → ATL 00:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2242 Delta Flight history →	BOS 05:30	ATL 08:21	2%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 695 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:45	ATL 09:34	4%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 456 Delta Flight history →	BOS 09:05	ATL 11:55	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 923 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:00	ATL 10:51	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 385 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:15	ATL 13:04	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 2779 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:30	ATL 15:21	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 399 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:30	ATL 19:38	7%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 322 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:55	ATL 16:49	7%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 638 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:10	ATL 18:10	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 973 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:10	ATL 22:24	8%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2464 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:55	ATL 21:07	8%	4%	0.6%	75%
B6 1097 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:30	ATL 11:16	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
B6 1397 JetBlue	BOS 13:43	ATL 16:34	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 3511 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 11:52	ATL 14:46	16%	5%	0.8%	69%
B6 1897 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 21:19	ATL 00:15	19%	8%	0.7%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON