Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1410 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1410 BOS 06:30 → AUS 09:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 1270 BOS 15:08 → AUS 18:09 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1410 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:30	AUS 09:44	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
B6 1439 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:53	AUS 14:02	14%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1297 Delta Flight history →	BOS 14:57	AUS 18:04	16%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 1677 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:59	AUS 22:26	18%	5%	0.6%	62%
WN 1270 Southwest	BOS 15:08	AUS 18:09	19%	3%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	BOS 14:31 → DFW 17:20AA 1442	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:09 → AUS 19:16AA 1588	5h 45m	85%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON