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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Asheville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 10:04 → AVL 11:11DL 3059 5h 41m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182 6h 27m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:52DL 3099 6h 52m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324 58m Chicago ORD 08:02 → AVL 10:49AA 3963 · flown by Envoy 5h 39m 95% 86%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:58 → ORD 11:00AA 1239 2h 38m Chicago ORD 13:38 → AVL 16:32AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 7h 34m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → BOS 07:05 → LGA 08:34AA 4470 · flown by Republic 1h 26m New York LGA 10:00 → AVL 12:10AA 4418 · flown by Republic 5h 05m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 17:18 → AVL 18:26DL 5261 · flown by Endeavor 5h 56m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 20:24 → AVL 21:32DL 3116 7h 37m 100% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON