Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 725 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 725 BOS 08:34 → BNA 10:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time Riskiest WN 1257 BOS 18:34 → BNA 20:02 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 725 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 08:34	BNA 10:16	6%	2%	0.5%	41%
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:20	BNA 10:16	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BOS 14:40	BNA 16:36	9%	3%	0.6%	76%
B6 407 JetBlue	BOS 13:55	BNA 15:39	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1530 Southwest	BOS 15:00	BNA 16:31	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2586 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:45	BNA 21:49	15%	5%	0.6%	60%
WN 1257 Southwest	BOS 18:34	BNA 20:02	17%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON