Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4666 BOS 09:21 → BUF 11:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 715 BOS 18:11 → BUF 19:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:21	BUF 11:11	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
YX 4439 Republic	BOS 21:21	BUF 23:01	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 1215 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:40	BUF 10:23	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
B6 915 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:05	BUF 13:47	7%	3%	0.6%	75%
MQ 3401 Envoy	BOS 14:44	BUF 16:23	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 715 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:11	BUF 19:54	10%	5%	0.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON