Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1642 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 1642 BOS 05:26 → BWI 06:48 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 697 BOS 20:02 → BWI 21:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1642 Southwest	BOS 05:26	BWI 06:48	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4333 Southwest	BOS 08:19	BWI 09:58	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 5644 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:50	BWI 17:42	5%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 1399 Delta	BOS 07:41	BWI 09:14	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5851 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:35	BWI 22:29	6%	3%	0.7%	63%
WN 2098 Southwest	BOS 10:47	BWI 12:09	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 858 Southwest	BOS 13:32	BWI 15:05	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 735 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 15:20	BWI 16:53	10%	2%	0.5%	36%
WN 3823 Southwest	BOS 17:48	BWI 19:13	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 697 Southwest	BOS 20:02	BWI 21:36	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON