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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303 2h 57m Minneapolis MSP 11:01 → BZN 12:35DL 2946 8h 40m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → BZN 16:26DL 406 10h 26m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 1414 1h 12m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 44m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098 2h 02m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 57m 97% 91%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418 1h 35m Charlotte CLT 10:05 → BZN 12:30AA 2415 8h 25m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → BOS 07:00 → ORD 09:01AA 1509 2h 15m Chicago ORD 11:16 → BZN 13:40AA 1080 8h 40m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → BOS 09:24 → DEN 11:43UA 647 2h 01m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 8h 09m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → BOS 12:30 → ORD 14:23UA 1732 2h 17m Chicago ORD 16:40 → BZN 18:58UA 1920 8h 28m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON