Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1410 BOS 06:12 → CLE 08:08 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5655 BOS 20:55 → CLE 23:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1410 Delta	BOS 06:12	CLE 08:08	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:54	CLE 17:06	4%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 5674 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:30	CLE 10:35	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 499 Delta	BOS 07:50	CLE 09:42	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 816 Delta	BOS 09:34	CLE 13:57	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 2041 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:49	CLE 10:50	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
B6 1341 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:17	CLE 20:24	9%	4%	0.6%	69%
DL 5655 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:55	CLE 23:07	9%	3%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON