Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 5626 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 5626 BOS 06:25 → CLT 08:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 922 BOS 17:55 → CLT 20:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:25	CLT 08:56	4%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:13	CLT 16:54	5%	2%	0.6%	80%
AA 418 American Flight history →	BOS 06:05	CLT 08:30	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
AA 2715 American Flight history →	BOS 08:05	CLT 10:30	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 5807 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:40	CLT 22:20	7%	4%	0.6%	66%
AA 1742 American	BOS 07:16	CLT 09:33	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1557 American Flight history →	BOS 12:02	CLT 14:13	11%	3%	0.6%	96%
AA 1270 American	BOS 13:35	CLT 15:55	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 885 American Flight history →	BOS 16:16	CLT 18:33	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 922 American Flight history →	BOS 17:55	CLT 20:14	19%	4%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON