Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 5654 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 5654 BOS 08:11 → CMH 10:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 1655 BOS 17:47 → CMH 19:56 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5654 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:11	CMH 10:31	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
YX 4373 Republic	BOS 09:23	CMH 11:38	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5653 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:38	CMH 16:58	5%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 977 Delta	BOS 07:43	CMH 09:38	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3922 Envoy	BOS 13:41	CMH 15:56	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5629 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:25	CMH 21:50	8%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 4641 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:45	CMH 22:59	9%	3%	0.6%	69%
DL 303 Delta	BOS 13:16	CMH 15:30	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1655 Delta	BOS 17:47	CMH 19:56	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON