Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 859 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 859 BOS 06:16 → CVG 08:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3408 BOS 18:20 → CVG 21:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 859 Delta	BOS 06:16	CVG 08:31	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5601 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:45	CVG 11:12	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 4760 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:55	CVG 14:30	5%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 5789 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:12	CVG 16:45	5%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 384 Delta	BOS 08:42	CVG 10:59	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 464 Delta	BOS 11:31	CVG 13:49	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5620 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:00	CVG 19:40	7%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 5801 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:45	CVG 23:16	7%	4%	0.7%	69%
AA 3408 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 18:20	CVG 21:00	15%	4%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON