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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 5687 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 5687 BOS 06:00 → DCA 07:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2255 BOS 18:11 → DCA 20:09 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time
Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 5687 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 06:00 DCA 07:49 3% 1% 0.6% 93%
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 09:15 DCA 11:07 5% 2% 0.6% 87%
AA 4342 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 07:05 DCA 09:13 5% 2% 0.6% 85%
YX 4465 Republic BOS 08:26 DCA 10:15 5% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 1004 American Flight history → BOS 01:40 DCA 03:28 6% 2% 0.6% 58%
DL 5692 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 07:25 DCA 09:21 6% 2% 0.6% 89%
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 10:20 DCA 12:12 6% 2% 0.6% 85%
DL 5672 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 12:24 DCA 14:18 6% 2% 0.6% 85%
B6 455 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 06:08 DCA 08:05 6% 2% 0.6% 68%
DL 5704 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 21:48 DCA 23:44 6% 2% 0.7% 77%
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 11:57 DCA 13:49 7% 2% 0.6% 60%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 15:45 DCA 17:49 7% 3% 0.6% 69%
YX 4510 Republic BOS 15:29 DCA 17:47 7% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 3240 American Flight history → BOS 09:24 DCA 11:14 8% 2% 0.6% 85%
AA 1164 American BOS 10:42 DCA 12:27 8% 3% 0.6% no record
B6 1055 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 07:53 DCA 09:50 8% 3% 0.6% 86%
AA 1535 American Flight history → BOS 08:59 DCA 10:53 9% 2% 0.6% 81%
B6 2355 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 08:29 DCA 10:10 9% 3% 0.6% 66%
YX 232 Republic BOS 18:15 DCA 20:12 9% 4% 0.7% no record
DL 5667 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 17:50 DCA 19:56 9% 5% 0.7% 63%
DL 5666 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 20:05 DCA 22:03 10% 4% 0.7% 59%
B6 855 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 12:53 DCA 14:34 11% 5% 0.6% 65%
B6 755 JetBlue BOS 14:55 DCA 16:53 11% 5% 0.6% no record
AA 4047 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BOS 20:22 DCA 22:19 12% 3% 1.0% 55%
B6 1355 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 16:10 DCA 17:56 12% 6% 0.7% 57%
B6 1955 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 17:10 DCA 18:58 14% 7% 0.7% 57%
AA 1421 American Flight history → BOS 18:06 DCA 19:55 14% 6% 0.7% 52%
B6 2255 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 18:11 DCA 20:09 15% 6% 0.7% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON