Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 647 BOS 09:24 → DEN 11:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 352 BOS 17:53 → DEN 20:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 647 United Flight history →	BOS 09:24	DEN 11:43	6%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 414 United Flight history →	BOS 12:22	DEN 14:53	6%	2%	0.5%	90%
WN 302 Southwest	BOS 09:29	DEN 11:56	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1932 United	BOS 00:48	DEN 03:33	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2348 United	BOS 09:27	DEN 11:59	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
B6 393 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:21	DEN 11:44	8%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 2297 United Flight history →	BOS 15:10	DEN 17:55	11%	3%	0.5%	86%
UA 800 United Flight history →	BOS 16:57	DEN 19:45	11%	4%	0.5%	75%
WN 352 Southwest	BOS 17:53	DEN 20:37	15%	4%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	51m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	6h 08m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 13:10 → DTW 15:20DL 2222	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431	6h 17m	93%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON