Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2527 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 2527 BOS 06:00 → DFW 09:22 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3102 BOS 17:02 → DFW 19:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2527 American Flight history →	BOS 06:00	DFW 09:22	4%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:15	DFW 10:23	5%	2%	0.5%	78%
AA 701 American Flight history →	BOS 10:24	DFW 13:20	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 479 American Flight history →	BOS 09:01	DFW 12:19	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 1209 American	BOS 08:32	DFW 11:47	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1438 American Flight history →	BOS 13:09	DFW 16:00	9%	3%	0.6%	69%
DL 2305 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:20	DFW 22:39	11%	5%	0.6%	67%
AA 1442 American Flight history →	BOS 14:31	DFW 17:20	11%	3%	0.6%	58%
AA 3102 American Flight history →	BOS 17:02	DFW 19:53	16%	4%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON