Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 5764 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 5764 BOS 06:25 → EWR 07:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 555 BOS 17:54 → EWR 19:33 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5764 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:25	EWR 07:54	3%	1%	0.7%	94%
UA 1833 United Flight history →	BOS 06:05	EWR 07:29	3%	1%	0.6%	94%
UA 570 United Flight history →	BOS 08:00	EWR 09:23	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 1307 United Flight history →	BOS 09:32	EWR 11:00	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 2394 United Flight history →	BOS 10:55	EWR 12:23	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2104 United	BOS 12:34	EWR 13:59	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:15	EWR 19:58	15%	5%	0.7%	60%
UA 2060 United Flight history →	BOS 20:27	EWR 22:00	16%	5%	0.7%	64%
UA 1647 United Flight history →	BOS 15:44	EWR 17:27	17%	5%	0.6%	41%
UA 1693 United Flight history →	BOS 19:00	EWR 20:32	18%	6%	0.7%	69%
UA 555 United	BOS 17:54	EWR 19:33	21%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON