Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 569 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day B6 569 BOS 05:10 → FLL 08:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 369 BOS 18:03 → FLL 21:33 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 569 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 05:10	FLL 08:30	6%	2%	0.7%	82%
DL 1401 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:55	FLL 11:24	9%	2%	0.7%	82%
B6 69 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:27	FLL 12:02	11%	3%	0.7%	68%
B6 269 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 14:55	FLL 18:29	18%	6%	0.8%	59%
B6 369 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:03	FLL 21:33	20%	9%	1.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON