Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1734 BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 2196 BOS 15:24 → IAD 17:04 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1734 United Flight history →	BOS 05:45	IAD 07:23	2%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 2098 United Flight history →	BOS 09:25	IAD 11:07	5%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 1580 Delta	BOS 07:27	IAD 09:06	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 721 United Flight history →	BOS 14:15	IAD 15:57	6%	3%	0.6%	78%
YX 3409 Republic	BOS 17:50	IAD 20:14	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2136 United Flight history →	BOS 19:27	IAD 21:16	11%	4%	0.5%	71%
DL 2196 Delta	BOS 15:24	IAD 17:04	12%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON